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Barack Obama went into 2008 election day with a +7.6 point lead over John McCain. The junior Illinois senator would go on to beat the senior Arizona senator in an electoral landslide of 365 to 173.
In 2020, we may very well be on the cusp of an equally giant—and even bigger—Democratic victory.
As of Friday, Democratic nominee Joe Biden has a +9.7 level lead over President Donald Trump, according to RealClearPolitics poll average. That’s up from his 6.6 level lead previous to the September 29 presidential debate in Cleveland and Trump’s hospitalization final week.
If Trump doesn’t start to shut the polling hole with Biden, then the president would wish an excellent greater polling upset to drag out a 2020 victory. 4 years in the past Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton went into election evening polling forward of Trump in Pennsylvania (+1.9 proportion factors), Michigan (+3.4 factors), and Wisconsin (+6.5 factors). Trump received all three and took White Home. Clinton received the favored vote by +2.1 factors after main by +3.2 factors within the RealClearPolitics ballot common.
This go round, Trump will seemingly have to win a minimum of six battleground states the place Biden is at the moment main: Arizona (+2.7 factors), Florida (+3.7 factors), Iowa (+1.4 factors), North Carolina (+1.4 factors), Ohio (+0.6 factors), and Wisconsin (+5.5 factors). If he wins these, Trump can seemingly afford to lose swing states like Michigan (+6.7 factors) and Pennsylvania (+7.1 factors), the place Biden is at the moment main. If Trump wins both of the latter states, he can afford to lose Wisconsin.
Whereas Biden leads RealClearPolitics ballot common in Iowa, FiveThirtyElection forecast nonetheless offers Trump a slight benefit within the state. FiveThirtyElection offers Biden the sting within the seven different 2016 Trump states the place the Democratic nominee is forward in RealClearPolitics ballot averages.
Extra must-read finance coverage from Fortune:
- What Wall Street needs from the 2020 election
- Why it feels like we’re in a recession—regardless that we aren’t
- Firms with happier staff outperform their peers
- Biden “blue wave” would boost economy, says Goldman Sachs chief economist
- Boris Johnson desires younger Brits to purchase houses—even when which means banks need to lend like it’s 2006