Given the continued sturdy demand for COVID-19 vaccines, particularly from ongoing contracts with wealthier international locations, it does not come as a shock that two of the three top-selling pharmaceutical merchandise this 12 months are anticipated to be vaccines.
Monetary analytics agency Evaluate Vantage tasks that Pfizer (NYSE:PFE)/BioNTech’s (NASDAQ:BNTX) COVID vaccine generally known as Comirnaty would be the prime promoting product this 12 months with gross sales ~$29B.
Coming in at No. 2 on the record with predicted gross sales of ~$20B is AbbVie’s (NYSE:ABBV) TNF-alpha blocker Humira (adalimumab). Till COVID vaccines turned out there in late 2020, Humira had dominated the highest spot because the top-selling drug within the U.S. for a few years.
Two merchandise are tied for No. 3. The primary is Moderna’s (NASDAQ:MRNA) COVID vaccine referred to as Spikevax that’s anticipated to earn $19.5B for the corporate. Earlier this month, CEO Stephane Bancel stated Moderna signed $18.5B worth of advance purchase agreements for its COVID vaccine this year.
Additionally in third place with $19.5B in projected gross sales is Merck’s (NYSE:MRK) PD-1 inhibitor utilized in quite a lot of most cancers indications Keytruda (pembrolizumab). Current analysis indicated that the monoclonal antibody may also be effective as an HIV therapy.
Two Bristol-Myers Squibb (NYSE:BMY) medicine come within the fifth and sixth spots. They’re Eliquis (apixaban) at ~$12B and Revlimid (lenalidomide) at simply over $11B. Bristol shares Eliquis revenues with associate Pfizer. Bristol might see generic competition for Revlimid next year.
A 3rd Bristol drug made the highest 10 record with Opdivo (nivolumab) at No. 9 with ~$9B in projected gross sales. In November, the corporate posted encouraging information from a late-stage Opdivo trial in non-small cell lung cancer.
Coming in at Nos. 7, 8, and 10 respectively are Johnson & Johnson’s (NYSE:JNJ) Stelara (ustekinumab) ($10.1B); Gilead Sciences’ (NASDAQ:GILD) Biktarvy (bictegravir/emtricitabine/tenofovir) (slightly below $10B); and Sanofi (NASDAQ:SNY)/Regeneron Prescription drugs (NASDAQ:REGN) Dupixent (dupilimuab) (~$7.5B).
The Consider Vantage report additionally estimates the largest pharmaceutical firms for 2022 based mostly on prescription drug gross sales. The highest 5 so as are Pfizer, AbbVie, Johnson & Johnson, Novartis (NYSE:NVS), and Bristol-Myers Squibb.
Pfizer is projected to have ~$67B in income adopted by Abbvie with ~$58B, and J&J at round ~$54B.
In one other statistic, Consider Vantage additionally predicts that Eli Lilly (NYSE:LLY) can have the 2 largest launches of the 12 months: donanemab for Alzheimer’s illness and tirzepatide for kind 2 diabetes. The agency predicts peak 2026 gross sales of the previous at $6B and of the latter at $4.9B.
Whereas the longer term for COVID-19 vaccines past 2022 is unsure, a possible decline in gross sales is prone to have a much bigger impact on smaller companies, such as Moderna, than bigger ones such as Pfizer and J&J.